Fed Rate Monitor: FOMC rate probabilities

Probabilities for every meeting

Market-implied rate path

How the odds moved

Probability of each target range after the next meeting, at the close of each business day.

What is the Fed Rate Monitor?

The Fed Rate Monitor estimates what the market expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to do with the federal funds target range at each of its next meetings. For every meeting it shows the probability of a rate cut, a hold or a rate hike, the most likely target range and the market-implied rate after the decision.

It is built by Trading Evolution from two kinds of data: live prices of the Fed decision contracts listed on Kalshi, a U.S. exchange regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and official data from the Federal Reserve — the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and target range published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the meeting calendar of the Federal Reserve Board. Our server reads these sources every 5 minutes.

How the probabilities are calculated

1. Market prices for each meeting. For every FOMC meeting, Kalshi lists one contract per outcome: a cut of more than 25 bp, a 25 bp cut, a hold, a 25 bp hike and a hike of more than 25 bp. A contract trading at $0.90 means the market gives that outcome about a 90% chance. We use the middle of the bid and ask prices and scale the five outcomes to 100%.
2. Expected change at each meeting. Each outcome is multiplied by its move (−50, −25, 0, +25, +50 bp) and the results are added up: for example, 94% hold and 6% hike give +1.5 bp.
3. Expected rate after each meeting. Starting from today's target range and EFFR (New York Fed), we add the expected changes meeting after meeting to get the market-implied rate path.
4. From rates to probabilities. The expected change at each meeting is split between the two nearest 25-basis-point moves, the same method as the CME FedWatch Tool. Meeting after meeting, the outcomes combine into the full probability tree shown in the histogram and the matrix.

How to read the tool

• Countdown: time left until the FOMC statement, released at 2:00 p.m. New York time on the last day of the meeting.
• Histogram: each bar is a target range after the selected meeting; the highlighted bar is the most likely outcome, the outlined one is today's range.
• Matrix: the same probabilities for every meeting at once, to see when the market expects the first move.
• Rate path: the market-implied fed funds rate after each meeting, compared with today's target range.
• History: the probability of each target range after the next meeting over recent months, one point per business day.

Why FOMC expectations matter for futures traders

Fed decisions move every market traders follow: index futures such as ES and NQ, the dollar and EUR/USD (6E), gold, crude oil and Treasury futures. Volatility usually jumps at 2:00 p.m. ET on decision day and again during the press conference at 2:30 p.m. Knowing what is already priced in tells you whether a decision is a surprise: a cut that the market gave 95% odds rarely moves prices the way a 30% outcome does.

Order flow is where those surprises become visible first. Our free NinjaTrader 8 indicators, such as the footprint and cumulative delta, show aggressive buying and selling as the statement hits the tape.

FOMC meeting schedule 2026–2027

Official dates published by the Federal Reserve Board. Meetings marked “projections” come with the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot. The statement is released at 2:00 p.m. New York time on the second day.

Limits of this estimate

• Kalshi prices and fed funds futures (used by CME FedWatch) are two different markets: their probabilities are usually within a few percentage points of each other, not always identical.
• Meetings far in the future trade less, so their odds are less precise.
• Outcomes of more than 25 basis points are counted as 50 bp moves.
• This is a market estimate, not a forecast of the FOMC decision and not investment advice.

Related concepts and tools

• Free NinjaTrader 8 indicators15 ICT and order flow tools, free with lifetime access.
• Order flow guideRead aggressive buying and selling around Fed decisions.
• Futures position size calculatorSize your trades before high-volatility FOMC days.
• COT dataFree CFTC Commitments of Traders data for 44 futures markets: large speculator and commercial net positions, weekly changes, COT index and 3-year charts.
• Economic calendarFree live economic calendar: today's and this week's market-moving releases with actual, forecast and previous values, impact filter, FOMC and COT dates, plus a guide.
• BacktestingBacktest trading strategies free in your browser: 9 templates, 20+ indicators, NinjaTrader, TradingView and MT5 data import, equity curve, drawdown and trade list.
• Trading journalFree trading journal in your browser: import NinjaTrader, MT4/MT5, Tradovate or TradingView trades and get profit factor, Sharpe, drawdown and Monte Carlo odds.

Frequently asked questions