ECB forecasters raise 2026 inflation view to 3.0% on energy prices

Inflation forecasts move up

Forecasters polled by the European Central Bank now expect headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, which is 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points above their previous estimates. The 2028 figure held at 2.0%, and expectations for 2031 stayed at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation.

Higher energy costs and their knock-on effects explain most of the change. Core inflation is seen at 2.4% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. Respondents see the risks tilted to the upside through 2028 and more balanced after that.

Growth and jobs

Real GDP is expected to grow 1.0% in 2026, up 0.4 points from the last round, and 1.3% in both 2027 and 2028. The longer-term view rose by 0.1 points to 1.3%, although respondents see growth risks tilted somewhat to the downside at every horizon.

Unemployment is forecast at 6.4% in 2026, slightly higher than before, and then falls gradually to 6.1%. Wage growth is put at 3.3% in 2026.

The Middle East question

A special question asked about the war in the Middle East. Answers suggest the extra effects of the energy shock will show up mainly in 2027, and that second-round effects will stay limited.

What euro rate traders watch

For rate futures traders, the anchored long-term number is the key detail. Near-term forecasts can rise on an energy shock, but a steady 2.0% longer-term view signals that professional forecasters still expect inflation to return to target.

The survey ran from 2 to 7 October 2026 and drew 52 responses. It does not represent the views of the ECB's decision-making bodies or staff.